How tariffs are affecting planner season (specifically Hobonichi)

I think there may be some confusion about how imports work, and while I am just as in the dark as everyone else on what will actually happen to our Hobonichi orders I thought it might be helpful to clear some things up that we DO know (for those of us in the U.S.).

How it used to work for U.S. customers purchasing direct from Hobonichi:

Most of us spent less than $800 per order and thus did not pay import duties. What we paid were state taxes that the US requires of overseas retailers. Global-e as Hobonichi’s proxy calculated what those local taxes should be based on our shipping address and charged us at the time of ordering.
Because most of our parcels had values under $800, they would be shipped directly to us and that was that. We didn’t have to worry about additional customs duties. This was among the reasons why we could purchase the products so much cheaper from Hobonichi than from local retailers, because those local retailers DID have to pay for the import on their wholesale shipments.

What’s changing

The US says it will suspend the $800 de minimis threshold starting Aug. 29.
Separately, it has also increased tariffs on Japanese imports and even more so from other countries (went in effect August 1).

What the import changes mean for Hobonichi customers in the U.S.

The cost of importing Hobonichi products is going up, but what we (or maybe only I) don’t know is by how much, since the calculation takes their supply chain into account, aka where their products are made. The U.S. struck a new trade deal with Japan that lands on higher tariffs than before, but still lower than other countries like China. Most coverage of this deal has been focused on industrial categories so it’s hard to tell exactly what it means for small consumer parcels with goods like stationery.
Whereas this would not have affected most of us direct buyers before, because we didn’t pay import duties, the de minimis suspension means it will affect us now. Not only are we theoretically on the hook to pay duties for the first time, the duties will be higher than they would have been in the past.
Global-e merchants can choose whether or not to provide the option to customers to pre-pay duties. I have never ordered more than $800 from Hobonichi so I don’t know if they elect to do this for their customers or not. Either way, you would see on the checkout page whether you’ve paid duties (not sales tax, but duties. They’re different) and if you haven’t, you’ll have to pay them separately. UPDATE: another Hobonichi user on Facebook said that in one of Hobonichi’s emails they said they WILL allow you to pre-pay duties at checkout, and others say that in countries where people had to pay duties this has also been the case.

How does it work when you have to pay duties on an international parcel?

There are existing systems for collecting these duties, since they’ve already been collected on parcels that exceeded the de minimis. The shippers (the company selling you the goods) have to declare the value of the goods to customs via the carrier (the company shipping the goods). There are severe penalties for lying on these declarations, so retailers are not likely going to lie to save you money.
The shipping carriers put the parcels through customs; duties owed are calculated based on the declaration, and the amount is billed to the customer. For example, the one time I made a high value overseas purchase I received a paper bill in the mail a few days later. This was from Fedex and it was quite efficient. They did not hold my parcel—they delivered it—and I paid the bill online. Entities like Global-e (which Hobonichi uses) offer solutions where you can pre-pay this and they settle the bill for you (I have not personally tried this before).

Open questions and speculation

Will Hobonichi offer to let customers pre-pay duties during checkout, or will we need to deal with paying them after? UPDATE: another Hobonichi user on Facebook said that in one of Hobonichi’s emails they said they WILL allow you to pre-pay duties at checkout, and others say that in countries where people had to pay duties this has also been the case.
Speculation from me: I am guessing but do not know, that the bundling of the covers and books (made in China and Japan, respectively) can help classify our orders as being from Japan, which would mean that the duties we pay will be the lower tariffs on Japan as opposed to the higher ones against China. If not that, I also wonder if it either too complicated to ship separate products made in separate countries, which would require Global-e to make mixed customs declarations on each order. I did not call any shipping or customs experts to find out, but I’m curious about the full process explanation of the book and cover bundling. If anyone knows the answer please enlighten me!
When all is said and done, based on what we know, I am guessing that prices will still look lower on the Hobonichi site compared to local retailers, but once they ship to us and we get charged the customs duties, the overall cost will end up netting the same as buying it from a retailer who imported it for us. This is why so many of us are thinking it may be easier to just buy local, and Hobonichi’s sales model may end up being more focused on retail than direct to consumer in the future.
Do we think it’s possible Hobonichi shipped this year’s inventory to U.S. retailers before Aug. 1, in which case perhaps they could have paid less in import duties than we will when we make our purchases? If this was at all a possibility there’s a chance local retailers may be able to charge less than what we would end up paying by buying direct and paying customs.
We dont know if the U.S. prepared for this sudden influx of parcels to process. International e-commerce has grown a lot and the $800 de minimis saved customs officials and carriers from having to process all those packages in the past. Though the systems DO exist they haven’t been tested for processing such high volumes so it’s anyone’s guess how they’re going to do after Aug. 29.
If anyone in this group is in the US and has purchased over $800 in a single order before can you confirm for us whether Hobonichi pre-charged you for duties at checkout or if the carrier billed you separately?

What to do about your Hobonichi planner orders

I want to try ordering direct from Hobonichi because I want the robot, I’m personally curious about how the process will work (because I’m a supply chain nerd), and I am in the very fortunate situation where a little bit of cost and convenience unpredictability won’t create an emergency situation for me. I am preparing to pay 15% extra if I’m not charged the 15% at checkout.
I am, however, buying a lot less this year than I have in previous years.
I will still watch to see what local retailers will charge, in the off chance through timing they are able to chart less than my total estimated cost including the 15% additional duties I’m preparing to pay. UPDATE: Yoseka Stationery has posted the items (you can’t purchase them yet) and it appears that they are charging about, or in some cases less than, 15% above the Hobonichi store price for some items but more than 15% extra for others. It seems in general that they’ve just added $18-19 per cover regardless of the price, though I didn’t check them all. So it COULD net out to be cheaper if you can get free shipping locally depending what you purchase, but you won’t get the free gifts and not everything will be sold from U.S. retailers. For example, if you’re ordering the beautiful people cover, which is only like a 13% markup locally in the U.S., you should definitely order locally because you’ll get free shipping and all the duties are already baked into the price; if you order from Hobonichi you pay $19 less on the price but then have to pay for shipping plus the duties for your order on arrival, which adds up to more than $19.
Given the updated information above, I will likely split my order, and buy some things direct from Hobonichi and other things from local retailers. UPDATE 2: FYI for those buying from U.S. retailers, for their part Yoseka shared in the days leading up to the drop that their wholesale shipment is awaiting customs clearance. They aren’t certain that it will clear by Aug. 31 but if it does their team has a target to ship all the first day orders within a week.
If you cannot take any financial risk in your budget, I would just plan to buy local or buy later (I think a lot of people are doing this). Unless Hobonichi has a way to pre-charge us for duties, I would not order from Hobonichi hoping that your parcel will be overlooked and somehow you will avoid the additional fees. I would not take the risk if you cannot afford to. UPDATE: another Hobonichi user on Facebook said that in one of Hobonichi’s emails they said they WILL allow you to pre-pay duties at checkout, and others say that in countries where people had to pay duties this has also been the case.