Hobonichi madness and strategic lessons to be learned

The thing about Hobonichi is that, while its products are pretty great, the company taps into a cycle of building hype for its products that can be both fun to participate in and a maddening exercise of reckless consumption.

But if you’re reading this, I’m assuming you’re not a person who judges other people for spending frivolously on stationery so let’s just forget that aspect of it. Consider this a safe space for us planner nerds.

Last night for me, in U.S. eastern time, I set my alarm for 9:55 pm so I could do my annual ritual of refreshing the Hobonichi site, and adding things to my cart directly from my wishlist, all in the hopes of ensuring I can cop some of the hotter items that might sell out. Luckily for me, the vast majority of the things I like tend not to be the HOTTEST. But one or two are, and I like to be on the safe side.

I run into little snags every year—needing to reload my cart a few times to get through, etc.—and was prepared with the patience for this. What ended up happening however, was chaos far beyond what I and many others expected. It amounted to hours of drama, lost sleep, and for me, about $100 “wasted.” All in all, not the end of the world, considering the state of the actual world. But I’m always looking for productive ways forward, so here are my takeaways:

• There are certain patterns of supply and demand that have come to be fairly predictable, albeit not guaranteed, with Hobonichi drops. For example, Minä Perhonen designs often have sell out risk because they have a huge dedicated following. Some of the special leather covers seem to not have a ton of inventory and thus have risk of selling out. Unusual and limited IP collaborations also seek to go quickly. But most other new covers each season seem to either have plenty of inventory or get restocked throughout the year.
• The planners themselves, especially the plain ones that are the core product of the company, are plentiful throughout planner season and often even have overstock into the following year. Perhaps except for the One Piece edition, though not even that, I wouldn’t expect the books to be scarce at this point of any year. When the later months come around, you might see English versions selling out, and specific Weeks designs.
• The false stockouts this year threw us all for a loop. While I was pretty confident in my aforementioned assumptions, when I started seeing really basic things marked as sold out I questioned reality. It seemed like either the company had drastically underestimated demand, or like something was happening where people were just buying up ALL the inventory some way other than Hobonichi’s global website. It made no sense at all. But it understandably sparked some widespread panic. Now, over 24 hours later, with the website back to normal and almost everything still in stock, it’s safe to say it was a false alarm and our prior understanding of Hobonichi inventory patterns remain true.
• Global resellers of Hobonichi products must, through some combination of agreement with Hobonichi, import taxes, resale margins, etc. that I haven’t called a home to verify, charge more. Depending on the product one could be spending as much as double to purchase from a reseller, even considering paying for shipping from Japan if buying direct from Hobonichi. So for people with large orders it really does pay off to buy direct.
• Reasons not to buy direct: wanting to get your items sooner (you can buy in person if you live close enough to a retailer); wanting to secure something you think might sell out on the Hobonichi site in under a day; loving a retailer so much you’re willing to give them extra money; living in a place where receiving shipments from Japan is difficult.
• The scalpers are moving more quickly every year. As Hobonichi gains popularity throughout the world, there seems the be more stuff on resale more quickly each year. People spotted 2025 covers on Mercari etc. immediately.
• A note on conspiracy theories: while it’s fair to criticize the type of marketing tactics Hobonichi uses, I’ve personally met Hobonichi staff and dealt with their customer service and I actually don’t have the impression that they are scammy people. I actually respect that they could play the scarcity game much more, like some other brands do, but they don’t. Instead, they hype their products up like crazy and also try to match expected demand with enough supply, with restocks throughout the season. So I don’t think they’re toying with us to manipulate the market, I think that these technical problems really do have to do with inventory management software and server overload. I also think that Hobonichi fans are a group of people who are very passionate about their brand, which comes with a lot of pros and cons. People have very strong opinions so they can’t please everyone, and people also have very little understanding of supply chains and logistics, which results in some demands that might seem reasonable to the customer that aren’t as easy to execute as they think. (These are my guesses based on having a background in reporting on supply chains and working in e-commerce, but I have not investigated this or asked anyone at Hobonichi to prove whether I’m right.)

Given these takeaways, here are some recommendations:

• If you’re a Minä Perhonen fan and cannot handle missing out on one of their new covers for the year, prepare yourself emotionally and financially to move quickly to purchase them from your favorite reseller. It’ll save you some drama and heartache.
• If you notice that you tend the like covers that are available well into the season, don’t sweat it if the site goes down. At the very least, glitches are inevitable. So if anything, step away from the chaos and let it blow by. Many people who slept through the drop last night woke up and bought everything they wanted drama free. I wish I’d just gone to sleep myself, and trusted in my experience and logic.
• In cases like this year, where something unexpected happened and panic spread, remember the basics: Hobonichi would not sustain its business if it can’t even keep in stock its most core fundamental product. So if you’re going to panic buy anything, make it something you think might actually have a possibility of not being restocked. These things tend to be the priciest things anyway, so you’d get free shipping from most sites other than Hobonichi. In the U.S., the retailers who carry Hobonichi include: Yoseka Stationery, JetPens, Jenni Bick, Atlas Stationers, Baum-Kuchen, and Nico Neco Zakkaya. I’ve purchased (other things) from all of these retailers and they’re all great.
• That said, consider that the price differences tend to be greater for the rarer products. So for example, the markup on a plain color cover or a basic techo isn’t massive; so if you’re securing a product with a higher markup from a reseller and the only thing you have left to buy is the techo to go with it; you may as well get the techo too instead of waiting to order from Hobonichi. If, like me, you want to buy something like a HON that would be double the price from a reseller with a high likelihood of restock, I’d wait to buy directly from Hobonichi.
• Especially if you’re group buying, pre-plan your decisions for each scenario. A lot of the drama tends to happen when on the spot emotional decisions have to be made. These emotions can be exaggerated when other people are counting on you to make decisions for them. If you’re prepared for the worst, you’ll know what to do. Ask your friends in advance what they want is the thing they want isn’t available, and ask them if they would rather pay a markup from another seller if that’s the only way to get it. Resellers can sell out too—so if, like me, you’re buying something for a friend who’s in a later time zone and that friend is sleeping through the drop, you might not be able to get a hold of them before the resellers sell out as well.
• If you’re really into Hobonichi exclusives and novelty items, my recommendation to save heartache and stress is to steel yourself for disappointment. Like with the lottery sales they used to do, which they didn’t do this year, it was simply a given that many people who wanted the products would not get them, and that was that. All anyone can do is try, and if you won it was a bonus not an expectation. I wouldn’t judge anyone for feeling disappointment, but it is possible to mitigate the level of impact that disappointment has on your mood, your day, your year, etc. And I say this only because I see some truly cranky and outlandish behavior from people in Hobonichi groups, and equally outlandish response. Everyone is allowed to feel their feelings. Everyone can also afford to calm down a bit.

Hope everyone is doing ok and is happy with how things turned out in the end!